SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Fri, 19 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Mexico 1–0 South Korea — match statistics
Mexico
Full time · Estadio Akron, Guadalajara
Match statistics
Mexico South Korea
Timeline
| 4' | 🟨 | Kang-in Lee — Yellowcard (South Korea) |
| 50' | ⚽ | Luis Romo — Goal (Mexico) · 1-0 |
| 57' | 🔄 | Hee-chan Hwang — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Hyeon-gyu Oh — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 58' | 🟨 | Seung-ho Paik — Yellowcard (South Korea) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Ji-sung Eom — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Hyun-jun Yang — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Orbelín Pineda — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Obed Vargas — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Gue-sung Cho — Substitution (South Korea) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Santiago Gimenez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Israel Reyes — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 84' | 🔄 | César Huerta — Substitution (Mexico) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Mexico·■ draw·■ South Korea—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (12%)
actual 1–0 was 2nd likeliest (12%)
Expected goals
1.63 – 0.95
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 52%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 51%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.6 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈10.1 expected
actual 2
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
S. Giménez 47% E. Álvarez 33% Son Heung-min 31% R. Jiménez 22%Scored: Luis Romo 50'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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