SaltaBallFixtures · Group stage · Thu, 11 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Mexico 2–0 South Africa — match statistics
Mexico
Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match statistics
Mexico South Africa
Timeline
| 9' | ⚽ | Julián Quiñones — Goal (Mexico) · 1-0 |
| 17' | 🟨 | Teboho Mokoena — Yellowcard (South Africa) |
| 23' | 🟨 | Brian Gutiérrez — Yellowcard (Mexico) |
| 49' | 🟥 | Yaya Sithole — Redcard (South Africa) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Thalente Mbatha — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Themba Zwane — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Luis Chávez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Gilberto Mora — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 67' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez — Goal (Mexico) · 2-0 |
| 74' | 🟨 | Nkosinathi Sibisi — Yellowcard (South Africa) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Edson Álvarez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Armando González — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Evidence Makgopa — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 77' | 🔄 | Oswin Appollis — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Alexis Vega — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 82' | • | Themba Zwane — VAR_CARD (South Africa) |
| 84' | 🟥 | Themba Zwane — Redcard (South Africa) |
| 90' | 🟥 | César Montes — Redcard (Mexico) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Mexico·■ draw·■ South Africa—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
2–0 (14%)
exactly what happened: 2–0
Expected goals
2.54 – 0.61
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Over — 61%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 58%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.0 expected
actual 6
Corners
≈12.3 expected
actual 4
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
S. Giménez 63% E. Álvarez 46% R. Jiménez 32% ⚽ L. Foster 26%Scored: Julián Quiñones 9' · Raúl Jiménez 67'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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