SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sat, 18 Jul 2026 · 21:00 UTC
France 4–6 England — match statistics
France
Full time · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match statistics
France England
Timeline
| 3' | ⚽ | Declan Rice — Goal (England) · 0-1 |
| 18' | ⚽ | Ezri Konsa — Goal (England) · 0-2 |
| 37' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka — Goal (England) · 0-3 |
| 45' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka — Goal (England) · 0-4 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Bradley Barcola — Substitution (France) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Ousmane Dembélé — Substitution (France) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Lucas Digne — Substitution (France) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Dayot Upamecano — Substitution (France) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Ollie Watkins — Substitution (England) |
| 48' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 1-4 |
| 54' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola — Goal (France) · 2-4 |
| 66' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 3-4 |
| 79' | 🔄 | Elliot Anderson — Substitution (England) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Jude Bellingham — Substitution (England) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Reece James — Substitution (England) |
| 87' | ⚽ | Bukayo Saka — Penalty (England) · 3-5 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Ousmane Dembélé — Goal (France) · 4-5 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham — Goal (England) · 4-6 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Jules Koundé — Substitution (France) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Trevoh Chalobah — Substitution (England) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ France·■ draw·■ England—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 4–6 was 54th likeliest (0%)
Expected goals
1.35 – 0.89
actual 4 – 6
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
10 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 41% ⚽ J. Bellingham 29% ⚽ O. Dembélé 28% ⚽ H. Kane 19%Scored: Declan Rice 3' · Ezri Konsa 18' · Bukayo Saka 37' · Bukayo Saka 45' · Kylian Mbappé 48' · Bradley Barcola 54' · Kylian Mbappé 66' · Bukayo Saka 87' · Ousmane Dembélé 90' · Jude Bellingham 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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