SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sun, 19 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Spain 1–0 Argentina — match statistics
Spain
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
Spain Argentina
Timeline
| 41' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 44' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Leandro Paredes — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 52' | 🟨 | Leandro Paredes — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Nahuel Molina — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Pedri — Substitution (Spain) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Facundo Medina — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Giuliano Simeone — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Mikel Merino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Nico Williams — Substitution (Spain) |
| 82' | 🟨 | Enzo Fernández — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 90' | • | Enzo Fernández — Yellow/Red card (Argentina) |
| 99' | 🔄 | Eric García — Substitution (Spain) |
| 99' | 🔄 | Martín Zubimendi — Substitution (Spain) |
| 102' | 🔄 | Marcos Senesi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 105' | 🟨 | Lionel Scaloni — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 106' | ⚽ | Ferran Torres — Goal (Spain) · 1-0 |
| 111' | 🟨 | Alexis Mac Allister — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Spain·■ draw·■ Argentina—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 1–0 was 4th likeliest (11%)
Expected goals
1.07 – 1.13
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈5.0 expected
actual 6
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 13
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 36% Lamine Yamal 34% J. Álvarez 24% Pedri 23%Scored: Ferran Torres 106'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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