SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Tue, 14 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
France 0–2 Spain — match statistics
France
Full time · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Match statistics
France Spain
Timeline
| 9' | 🟨 | Adrien Rabiot — Yellowcard (France) |
| 22' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal — Penalty (Spain) · 0-1 |
| 30' | 🔄 | Maxence Lacroix — Substitution (France) |
| 31' | 🟨 | Marc Cucurella — Yellowcard (Spain) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Manu Koné — Substitution (France) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Désiré Doué — Substitution (France) |
| 58' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro — Goal (Spain) · 0-2 |
| 72' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Theo Hernández — Substitution (France) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Mikel Merino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Pedri — Substitution (Spain) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Marcos Llorente — Substitution (Spain) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Nico Williams — Substitution (Spain) |
| 86' | 🟨 | Kylian Mbappé — Yellowcard (France) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ France·■ draw·■ Spain—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 0–2 was 7th likeliest (7%)
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.10
actual 0 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈5.1 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.5 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Lamine Yamal 35% K. Mbappé 35% Pedri 23% O. Dembélé 23%Scored: Mikel Oyarzabal 22' · Pedro Porro 58'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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