SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Wed, 15 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
England 1–2 Argentina — match statistics
England
Full time · Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta
Match statistics
England Argentina
Timeline
| 37' | 🟨 | Elliot Anderson — Yellowcard (England) |
| 42' | 🟨 | Lisandro Martínez — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 51' | 🟨 | Cristian Romero — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 55' | ⚽ | Anthony Gordon — Goal (England) · 1-0 |
| 64' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Ezri Konsa — Substitution (England) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Gonzalo Montiel — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Rodrigo De Paul — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Lautaro Martínez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Dan Burn — Substitution (England) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Nico O'Reilly — Substitution (England) |
| 85' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández — Goal (Argentina) · 1-1 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez — Goal (Argentina) · 1-2 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Marcus Rashford — Substitution (England) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Ivan Toney — Substitution (England) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rodrigo De Paul — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ England·■ draw·■ Argentina—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–1 (14%)
actual 1–2 was 5th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
0.86 – 1.40
actual 1 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈8.8 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 42% J. Álvarez 29% J. Bellingham 29% E. Martínez 19% ⚽Scored: Anthony Gordon 55' · Enzo Fernández 85' · Lautaro Martínez 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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