SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Fri, 10 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Spain 2–1 Belgium — match statistics
Spain
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
Spain Belgium
Timeline
| 30' | ⚽ | Fabián Ruiz — Goal (Spain) · 1-0 |
| 41' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere — Goal (Belgium) · 1-1 |
| 43' | 🟨 | Pau Cubarsí — Yellowcard (Spain) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Pedri — Substitution (Spain) |
| 55' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Romelu Lukaku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Axel Witsel — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Joaquin Seys — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Senne Lammens — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Nico Williams — Substitution (Spain) |
| 85' | 🟨 | Kevin De Bruyne — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Mikel Merino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Alexis Saelemaekers — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 88' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino — Goal (Spain) · 2-1 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Aymeric Laporte — Yellowcard (Spain) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Axel Witsel — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Spain·■ draw·■ Belgium—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 2–1 was 4th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.84 – 0.66
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 54%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 60%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.7 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Lamine Yamal 51% Pedri 36% Nico Williams 24% K. De Bruyne 23%Scored: Fabián Ruiz 30' · Charles De Ketelaere 41' · Mikel Merino 88'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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