SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sun, 12 Jul 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Argentina 3–1 Switzerland — match statistics
Argentina
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Argentina Switzerland
Timeline
| 10' | ⚽ | Alexis Mac Allister — Goal (Argentina) · 1-0 |
| 44' | 🟨 | Breel Embolo — Yellowcard (Switzerland) |
| 67' | ⚽ | Dan Ndoye — Goal (Switzerland) · 1-1 |
| 69' | • | Leandro Paredes — VAR_CARD (Argentina) |
| 72' | • | Breel Embolo — Yellow/Red card (Switzerland) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Lautaro Martínez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Gonzalo Montiel — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Zeki Amdouni — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Miro Muheim — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Silvan Widmer — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Eray Cömert — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 91' | 🔄 | Thiago Almada — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 96' | 🔄 | Ardon Jashari — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 97' | 🟨 | Thiago Almada — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 98' | 🟨 | Lautaro Martínez — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 106' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 110' | 🔄 | José Manuel López — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 112' | ⚽ | Julián Álvarez — Goal (Argentina) · 2-1 |
| 114' | 🟨 | José Manuel López — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
| 115' | 🔄 | Rubén Vargas — Substitution (Switzerland) |
| 120' | ⚽ | Lautaro Martínez — Goal (Argentina) · 3-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Argentina·■ draw·■ Switzerland—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (15%)
actual 3–1 was 8th likeliest (5%)
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.70
actual 3 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 56%
4 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 59%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.5 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 49% J. Álvarez 34% ⚽ G. Xhaka 24% E. Martínez 23% ⚽Scored: Alexis Mac Allister 10' · Dan Ndoye 67' · Julián Álvarez 112' · Lautaro Martínez 120'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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