SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sat, 4 Jul 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Canada 0–3 Morocco — match statistics
Canada
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Canada Morocco
Timeline
| 20' | 🟨 | Redouane Halhal — Yellowcard (Morocco) |
| 22' | 🔄 | Soufiane Rahimi — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 40' | 🟨 | Achraf Hakimi — Yellowcard (Morocco) |
| 40' | 🟨 | Richie Laryea — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 43' | 🟨 | Jonathan David — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 45' | 🟨 | Azzedine Ounahi — Yellowcard (Morocco) |
| 45' | 🟨 | Bilal El Khannouss — Yellowcard (Morocco) |
| 49' | 🟨 | Luc De Fougerolles — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 50' | ⚽ | Azzedine Ounahi — Goal (Morocco) · 0-1 |
| 63' | 🔄 | Sofyan Amrabat — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Cyle Larin — Substitution (Canada) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Chemsdine Talbi — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 67' | 🟨 | Cyle Larin — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Promise David — Substitution (Canada) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Jacob Shaffelburg — Substitution (Canada) |
| 82' | ⚽ | Azzedine Ounahi — Goal (Morocco) · 0-2 |
| 87' | 🔄 | Samir El Mourabet — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Jayden Nelson — Substitution (Canada) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Jonathan Osorio — Substitution (Canada) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Marwane Saadane — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Soufiane Rahimi — Goal (Morocco) · 0-3 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Canada·■ draw·■ Morocco—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (13%)
actual 0–3 was 8th likeliest (5%)
Expected goals
0.93 – 1.48
actual 0 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 57%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 53%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 8
Corners
≈9.4 expected
actual 12
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Hakimi 44% A. Davies 30% Brahim Díaz 30% J. David 20%Scored: Azzedine Ounahi 50' · Azzedine Ounahi 82' · Soufiane Rahimi 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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