SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sat, 4 Jul 2026 · 21:00 UTC
Paraguay 0–1 France — match statistics
Paraguay
Full time · Lincoln Financial, Philadelphia
Match statistics
Paraguay France
Timeline
| 19' | 🟨 | Bradley Barcola — Yellowcard (France) |
| 58' | 🔄 | José Canale — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Gustavo Caballero — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Désiré Doué — Substitution (France) |
| 70' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Penalty (France) · 0-1 |
| 71' | 🔄 | Gabriel Ávalos — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Mauricio — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 81' | 🟨 | Manu Koné — Yellowcard (France) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Michael Olise — Yellowcard (France) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Paraguay·■ draw·■ France—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
0–2 (15%)
actual 0–1 was 2nd likeliest (14%)
Expected goals
0.59 – 2.05
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 51%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 61%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.2 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈10.2 expected
actual 14
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 55% ⚽ O. Dembélé 39% A. Tchouaméni 26% M. Almirón 25%Scored: Kylian Mbappé 70'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.