SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sun, 5 Jul 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Brazil 1–2 Norway — match statistics
Brazil
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
Brazil Norway
Timeline
| 14' | ❌ | Bruno Guimarães — Missed Penalty (Brazil) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Oscar Bobb — Substitution (Norway) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Andreas Schjelderup — Substitution (Norway) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Endrick — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Fredrik Aursnes — Substitution (Norway) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Neymar — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Danilo — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 79' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 0-1 |
| 79' | 🔄 | Éderson — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Erling Haaland — Goal (Norway) · 0-2 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Neymar — Penalty (Brazil) · 1-2 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Leo Østigård — Substitution (Norway) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Neymar — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Brazil·■ draw·■ Norway—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 1–2 was 7th likeliest (6%)
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.88
actual 1 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈8.8 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Vinícius Jr. 41% E. Haaland 35% ⚽ Raphinha 28% M. Ødegaard 23%Scored: Erling Haaland 79' · Erling Haaland 90' · Neymar 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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