SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Mon, 6 Jul 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Mexico 2–3 England — match statistics
Mexico
Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match statistics
Mexico England
Timeline
| 1' | 🟨 | Declan Rice — Yellowcard (England) |
| 36' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham — Goal (England) · 0-1 |
| 38' | ⚽ | Jude Bellingham — Goal (England) · 0-2 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Julián Quiñones — Goal (Mexico) · 1-2 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Edson Álvarez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 53' | • | Jarell Quansah — VAR_CARD (England) |
| 54' | 🟥 | Jarell Quansah — Redcard (England) |
| 57' | 🔄 | John Stones — Substitution (England) |
| 60' | ⚽ | Harry Kane — Penalty (England) · 1-3 |
| 61' | 🔄 | Santiago Gimenez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Brian Gutiérrez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 68' | 🟨 | Marc Guéhi — Yellowcard (England) |
| 69' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez — Penalty (Mexico) · 2-3 |
| 71' | 🟨 | Jorge Sánchez — Yellowcard (Mexico) |
| 72' | 🟨 | Nico O'Reilly — Yellowcard (England) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Djed Spence — Substitution (England) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Dan Burn — Substitution (England) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Álvaro Fidalgo — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Guillermo Martínez Ayala — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Morgan Rogers — Substitution (England) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Johan Vásquez — Yellowcard (Mexico) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Jordan Henderson — Yellowcard (England) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Mexico·■ draw·■ England—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 2–3 was 14th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
1.09 – 1.25
actual 2 – 3
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 58%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 52%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 7
Corners
≈9.1 expected
actual 14
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Bellingham 39% ⚽ S. Giménez 35% H. Kane 26% ⚽ E. Álvarez 23%Scored: Jude Bellingham 36' · Jude Bellingham 38' · Julián Quiñones 42' · Harry Kane 60' · Raúl Jiménez 69'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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