SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Mon, 6 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Portugal 0–1 Spain — match statistics
Portugal
Full time · AT&T Stadium, Dallas
Match statistics
Portugal Spain
Timeline
| 56' | 🔄 | Nélson Semedo — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Diogo Dalot — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Rafael Leão — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Francisco Conceição — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 83' | 🔄 | Bernardo Silva — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Mikel Merino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Fabián Ruiz — Substitution (Spain) |
| 89' | 🟨 | Bernardo Silva — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Mikel Merino — Goal (Spain) · 0-1 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Borja Iglesias — Substitution (Spain) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Renato Veiga — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ferran Torres — Yellowcard (Spain) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Portugal·■ draw·■ Spain—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
0–1 (14%)
exactly what happened: 0–1
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.47
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 60%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 57%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.6 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.9 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Lamine Yamal 44% Pedri 30% C. Ronaldo 27% Nico Williams 20%Scored: Mikel Merino 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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