SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Tue, 7 Jul 2026 · 00:00 UTC
United States 1–4 Belgium — match statistics
United States
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
United States Belgium
Timeline
| 9' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere — Goal (Belgium) · 0-1 |
| 21' | 🔄 | Hans Vanaken — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 31' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman — Goal (United States) · 1-1 |
| 33' | ⚽ | Charles De Ketelaere — Goal (Belgium) · 1-2 |
| 35' | 🟨 | Weston McKennie — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Giovanni Reyna — Substitution (United States) |
| 57' | ⚽ | Hans Vanaken — Goal (Belgium) · 1-3 |
| 59' | 🔄 | Sebastian Berhalter — Substitution (United States) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Jérémy Doku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Romelu Lukaku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 69' | 🟨 | Malik Tillman — Yellowcard (United States) |
| 72' | 🔄 | Ricardo Pepi — Substitution (United States) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Alexis Saelemaekers — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Axel Witsel — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku — Goal (Belgium) · 1-4 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Max Arfsten — Substitution (United States) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Haji Wright — Substitution (United States) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ United States·■ draw·■ Belgium—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 1–4 was 16th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.23
actual 1 – 4
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 58%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 52%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.1 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. De Bruyne 38% C. Pulisic 35% J. Doku 26% W. McKennie 24%Scored: Charles De Ketelaere 9' · Malik Tillman 31' · Charles De Ketelaere 33' · Hans Vanaken 57' · Romelu Lukaku 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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