SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Tue, 7 Jul 2026 · 16:00 UTC
Argentina 3–2 Egypt — match statistics
Argentina
Full time · Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta
Match statistics
Argentina Egypt
Timeline
| 15' | ⚽ | Yasser Ibrahim — Goal (Egypt) · 0-1 |
| 21' | ❌ | Lionel Messi — Missed Penalty (Argentina) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Hamdy Fathy — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Lautaro Martínez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 67' | ⚽ | Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf — Goal (Egypt) · 0-2 |
| 73' | 🔄 | Gonzalo Montiel — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Mahmoud Trezeguet — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 79' | ⚽ | Cristian Romero — Goal (Argentina) · 1-2 |
| 80' | 🔄 | Omar Marmoush — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 83' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 2-2 |
| 90' | ⚽ | Enzo Fernández — Goal (Argentina) · 3-2 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Facundo Medina — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Nicolás Otamendi — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Zizo — Substitution (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Oufa Shobeir — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hamdy Fathy — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Marwan Ateya — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Haissem Hassan — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Hossam Hassan — Yellowcard (Egypt) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Argentina·■ draw·■ Egypt—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (16%)
actual 3–2 was 14th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
2.27 – 0.53
actual 3 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 53%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 63%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈10.9 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 59% ⚽ J. Álvarez 42% E. Martínez 29% M. Salah 23%Scored: Yasser Ibrahim 15' · Mostafa Mohamed Zaki Abdelraouf 67' · Cristian Romero 79' · Lionel Messi 83' · Enzo Fernández 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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