SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sun, 28 Jun 2026 · 19:00 UTC
South Africa 0–1 Canada — match statistics
South Africa
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
South Africa Canada
Timeline
| 46' | 🔄 | Thalente Mbatha — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 54' | 🟨 | Nathan-Dylan Saliba — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Luc De Fougerolles — Substitution (Canada) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Niko Sigur — Substitution (Canada) |
| 67' | 🟨 | Niko Sigur — Yellowcard (Canada) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Promise David — Substitution (Canada) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Jacob Shaffelburg — Substitution (Canada) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Alphonso Davies — Substitution (Canada) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Tshepang Moremi — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Iqraam Rayners — Substitution (South Africa) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Stephen Eustaquio — Goal (Canada) · 0-1 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ South Africa·■ draw·■ Canada—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
0–1 (13%)
exactly what happened: 0–1
Expected goals
0.82 – 1.68
actual 0 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 54%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 55%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.5 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈9.7 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
A. Davies 48% J. David 33% L. Foster 32% S. Larin 22%Scored: Stephen Eustaquio 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.