SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Mon, 29 Jun 2026 · 17:00 UTC
Brazil 2–1 Japan — match statistics
Brazil
Full time · NRG Stadium, Houston
Match statistics
Brazil Japan
Timeline
| 12' | 🟨 | Kaishu Sano — Yellowcard (Japan) |
| 14' | 🟨 | Casemiro — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
| 29' | ⚽ | Kaishu Sano — Goal (Japan) · 0-1 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Daichi Kamada — Yellowcard (Japan) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Endrick — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 48' | 🟨 | Danilo — Yellowcard (Brazil) |
| 56' | ⚽ | Casemiro — Goal (Brazil) · 1-1 |
| 66' | 🔄 | Gabriel Martinelli — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Yukinari Sugawara — Substitution (Japan) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Junnosuke Suzuki — Substitution (Japan) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Shuto Machino — Substitution (Japan) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Ao Tanaka — Substitution (Japan) |
| 84' | 🟨 | Junnosuke Suzuki — Yellowcard (Japan) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gabriel Martinelli — Goal (Brazil) · 2-1 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Fabinho — Substitution (Brazil) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Koki Ogawa — Substitution (Japan) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Danilo — Substitution (Brazil) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Brazil·■ draw·■ Japan—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 2–1 was 6th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.32 – 0.91
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 61%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Vinícius Jr. 40% T. Kubo 30% Raphinha 27% K. Mitoma 20%Scored: Kaishu Sano 29' · Casemiro 56' · Gabriel Martinelli 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.