SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Tue, 30 Jun 2026 · 01:00 UTC
Netherlands 1–1 Morocco — match statistics
Netherlands
Full time · Estadio BBVA, Monterrey
Match statistics
Netherlands Morocco
Timeline
| 1' | • | Teun Koopmeiners — Penalty Shootout Goal (Netherlands) · 1-0 |
| 2' | • | Neil El Aynaoui — Penalty Shootout Miss (Morocco) · 1-0 |
| 3' | • | Justin Kluivert — Penalty Shootout Miss (Netherlands) · 1-0 |
| 4' | • | Soufiane Rahimi — Penalty Shootout Goal (Morocco) · 1-1 |
| 5' | • | Wout Weghorst — Penalty Shootout Goal (Netherlands) · 2-1 |
| 6' | • | Chemsdine Talbi — Penalty Shootout Goal (Morocco) · 2-2 |
| 7' | • | Quinten Timber — Penalty Shootout Miss (Netherlands) · 2-2 |
| 8' | • | Achraf Hakimi — Penalty Shootout Miss (Morocco) · 2-2 |
| 9' | • | Crysencio Summerville — Penalty Shootout Miss (Netherlands) · 2-2 |
| 10' | • | Ismael Saibari — Penalty Shootout Goal (Morocco) · 2-3 |
| 47' | 🟨 | Issa Diop — Yellowcard (Morocco) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Teun Koopmeiners — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Wout Weghorst — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 72' | ⚽ | Cody Gakpo — Goal (Netherlands) · 1-0 |
| 75' | 🔄 | Anass Salah-Eddine — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Samir El Mourabet — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Gessime Yassine — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Jorrel Hato — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Soufiane Rahimi — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Quinten Timber — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 87' | 🔄 | Chemsdine Talbi — Substitution (Morocco) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Issa Diop — Goal (Morocco) · 1-1 |
| 110' | 🔄 | Marten de Roon — Substitution (Netherlands) |
| 113' | 🔄 | Justin Kluivert — Substitution (Netherlands) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Netherlands·■ draw·■ Morocco—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✓
1–1 (14%)
exactly what happened: 1–1
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.01
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 62%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 13
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
V. van Dijk 37% A. Hakimi 32% C. Gakpo 25% ⚽ Brahim Díaz 22%Scored: Cody Gakpo 72' · Issa Diop 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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