SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Mon, 29 Jun 2026 · 20:30 UTC
Germany 1–1 Paraguay — match statistics
Germany
Full time · Gillette Stadium, Boston
Match statistics
Germany Paraguay
Timeline
| 1' | • | Kai Havertz — Penalty Shootout Miss (Germany) |
| 2' | • | Mauricio — Penalty Shootout Goal (Paraguay) · 0-1 |
| 3' | • | Joshua Kimmich — Penalty Shootout Goal (Germany) · 1-1 |
| 4' | • | Gustavo Gómez — Penalty Shootout Goal (Paraguay) · 1-2 |
| 5' | • | Jamal Musiala — Penalty Shootout Goal (Germany) · 2-2 |
| 6' | • | Matías Galarza Fonda — Penalty Shootout Goal (Paraguay) · 2-3 |
| 7' | • | Nick Woltemade — Penalty Shootout Miss (Germany) · 2-3 |
| 8' | • | Antonio Sanabria — Penalty Shootout Miss (Paraguay) · 2-3 |
| 9' | • | Nadiem Amiri — Penalty Shootout Goal (Germany) · 3-3 |
| 10' | • | Fabián Balbuena — Penalty Shootout Miss (Paraguay) · 3-3 |
| 11' | • | Jonathan Tah — Penalty Shootout Miss (Germany) · 3-3 |
| 12' | • | José Canale — Penalty Shootout Goal (Paraguay) · 3-4 |
| 42' | ⚽ | Julio Enciso — Goal (Paraguay) · 0-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Leon Goretzka — Substitution (Germany) |
| 54' | ⚽ | Kai Havertz — Goal (Germany) · 1-1 |
| 55' | 🔄 | Gustavo Caballero — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 57' | 🔄 | Mauricio — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Jamal Musiala — Substitution (Germany) |
| 65' | 🟨 | Andrés Cubas — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Waldemar Anton — Substitution (Germany) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Nick Woltemade — Substitution (Germany) |
| 91' | 🔄 | Gustavo Velázquez — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 99' | 🔄 | Braian Ojeda — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 99' | 🔄 | Antonio Sanabria — Substitution (Paraguay) |
| 105' | 🟨 | Gustavo Alfaro — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 105' | 🟨 | Julian Nagelsmann — Yellowcard (Germany) |
| 106' | 🟨 | Kai Havertz — Yellowcard (Germany) |
| 110' | 🔄 | Nadiem Amiri — Substitution (Germany) |
| 110' | 🔄 | Malick Thiaw — Substitution (Germany) |
| 115' | 🟨 | Jamal Musiala — Yellowcard (Germany) |
| 117' | 🟨 | Matías Galarza Fonda — Yellowcard (Paraguay) |
| 120' | 🔄 | Fabián Balbuena — Substitution (Paraguay) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Germany·■ draw·■ Paraguay—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (14%)
actual 1–1 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
1.34 – 0.90
actual 1 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 61%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.7 expected
actual 6
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 22
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Musiala 41% M. Almirón 35% F. Wirtz 28% A. Sanabria 24%Scored: Julio Enciso 42' · Kai Havertz 54'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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