SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Tue, 30 Jun 2026 · 21:00 UTC
France 3–0 Sweden — match statistics
France
Full time · MetLife Stadium, New York / NJ
Match statistics
France Sweden
Timeline
| 45' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 1-0 |
| 53' | ⚽ | Bradley Barcola — Goal (France) · 2-0 |
| 66' | 🔄 | Taha Ali — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Besfort Zeneli — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 74' | ⚽ | Kylian Mbappé — Goal (France) · 3-0 |
| 75' | 🔄 | Désiré Doué — Substitution (France) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Malo Gusto — Substitution (France) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Theo Hernández — Substitution (France) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Benjamin Nygren — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 82' | 🔄 | Mattias Svanberg — Substitution (Sweden) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Rayan Cherki — Substitution (France) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Jean-Philippe Mateta — Substitution (France) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Gustaf Nilsson — Substitution (Sweden) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ France·■ draw·■ Sweden—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (16%)
actual 3–0 was 3rd likeliest (12%)
Expected goals
2.37 – 0.51
actual 3 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 55%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 64%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 0
Corners
≈11.2 expected
actual 10
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. Mbappé 60% ⚽ O. Dembélé 44% A. Tchouaméni 30% A. Isak 22%Scored: Kylian Mbappé 45' · Bradley Barcola 53' · Kylian Mbappé 74'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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