SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 02:00 UTC
Mexico 2–0 Ecuador — match statistics
Mexico
Full time · Estadio Azteca, Mexico City
Match statistics
Mexico Ecuador
Timeline
| 22' | ⚽ | Julián Quiñones — Goal (Mexico) · 1-0 |
| 31' | ⚽ | Raúl Jiménez — Goal (Mexico) · 2-0 |
| 45' | 🟨 | Alan Franco — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Yaimar Medina — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Angelo Preciado — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 58' | 🔄 | Brian Gutiérrez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 59' | 🔄 | Kevin Rodríguez — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Obed Vargas — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 74' | 🔄 | Santiago Gimenez — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Jordy Caicedo — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Kendry Páez — Substitution (Ecuador) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Orbelín Pineda — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Israel Reyes — Substitution (Mexico) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Kendry Páez — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Moisés Caicedo — Yellowcard (Ecuador) |
| 90' | 🟥 | Piero Hincapié — Redcard (Ecuador) |
| 90' | • | Piero Hincapié — VAR_CARD (Ecuador) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Mexico·■ draw·■ Ecuador—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (13%)
actual 2–0 was 6th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.01
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 58%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 53%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 4
Corners
≈9.2 expected
actual 11
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
S. Giménez 41% M. Caicedo 32% E. Álvarez 28% K. Páez 22%Scored: Julián Quiñones 22' · Raúl Jiménez 31'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.