SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 20:00 UTC
Belgium 3–2 Senegal — match statistics
Belgium
Full time · Lumen Field, Seattle
Match statistics
Belgium Senegal
Timeline
| 24' | ⚽ | Habib Diarra — Goal (Senegal) · 0-1 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Romelu Lukaku — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 51' | ⚽ | Ismaïla Sarr — Goal (Senegal) · 0-2 |
| 56' | 🔄 | Dodi Lukébakio — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 56' | 🔄 | Nicolas Raskin — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Diego Moreira — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 64' | 🟨 | Brandon Mechele — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 66' | 🔄 | Lamine Camara — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 67' | 🟨 | Lamine Camara — Yellowcard (Senegal) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Ibrahim Mbaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Pape Matar Sarr — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 78' | 🔄 | Thomas Meunier — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 86' | ⚽ | Romelu Lukaku — Goal (Belgium) · 1-2 |
| 89' | ⚽ | Youri Tielemans — Goal (Belgium) · 2-2 |
| 90' | 🟨 | Rudi Garcia — Yellowcard (Belgium) |
| 94' | 🔄 | El Hadji Malick Diouf — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 94' | 🔄 | Nicolas Jackson — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 96' | 🔄 | Bara Sapoko Ndiaye — Substitution (Senegal) |
| 109' | 🔄 | Amadou Onana — Substitution (Belgium) |
| 120' | ⚽ | Youri Tielemans — Penalty (Belgium) · 3-2 |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Belgium·■ draw·■ Senegal—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 3–2 was 14th likeliest (2%)
Expected goals
1.19 – 1.02
actual 3 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.9 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.6 expected
actual 6
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
K. De Bruyne 37% S. Mané 33% J. Doku 25% N. Mendy 22%Scored: Habib Diarra 24' · Ismaïla Sarr 51' · Romelu Lukaku 86' · Youri Tielemans 89' · Youri Tielemans 120'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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