SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Wed, 1 Jul 2026 · 16:00 UTC
England 2–1 DR Congo — match statistics
England
Full time · Mercedes-Benz, Atlanta
Match statistics
England DR Congo
Timeline
| 7' | ⚽ | Brian Cipenga — Goal (DR Congo) · 0-1 |
| 19' | 🟨 | Jude Bellingham — Yellowcard (England) |
| 28' | 🟨 | Noah Sadiki — Yellowcard (DR Congo) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Anthony Gordon — Substitution (England) |
| 61' | 🔄 | Bukayo Saka — Substitution (England) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Meschack Elia — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 70' | 🔄 | Eberechi Eze — Substitution (England) |
| 75' | ⚽ | Harry Kane — Goal (England) · 1-1 |
| 76' | 🔄 | Théo Bongonda — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 76' | 🔄 | Edo Kayembe — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 86' | ⚽ | Harry Kane — Goal (England) · 2-1 |
| 89' | 🔄 | Joris Kayembe — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 89' | 🔄 | Fiston Mayele — Substitution (DR Congo) |
| 90' | 🔄 | John Stones — Substitution (England) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ England·■ draw·■ DR Congo—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 2–1 was 5th likeliest (9%)
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.62
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 53%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 60%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.3 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈10.0 expected
actual 8
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
J. Bellingham 53% H. Kane 38% ⚽ S. Bakambu 26% B. Saka 25%Scored: Brian Cipenga 7' · Harry Kane 75' · Harry Kane 86'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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