SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Thu, 2 Jul 2026 · 00:00 UTC
United States 2–0 Bosnia & Herz. — match statistics
United States
Full time · Levi's Stadium, San Francisco Bay
Match statistics
United States Bosnia & Herz.
Timeline
| 45' | ⚽ | Folarin Balogun — Goal (United States) · 1-0 |
| 51' | 🔄 | Esmir Bajraktarevic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 51' | 🔄 | Ermin Mahmic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 51' | 🔄 | Benjamin Tahirović — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 63' | • | Folarin Balogun — VAR_CARD (United States) |
| 64' | 🟥 | Folarin Balogun — Redcard (United States) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Amar Memic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 75' | 🔄 | Haris Tabakovic — Substitution (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 80' | 🟨 | Stjepan Radeljic — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 80' | 🟨 | Sergej Barbarez — Yellowcard (Bosnia & Herz.) |
| 82' | ⚽ | Malik Tillman — Goal (United States) · 2-0 |
| 87' | 🔄 | Sebastian Berhalter — Substitution (United States) |
| 88' | 🔄 | Ricardo Pepi — Substitution (United States) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Giovanni Reyna — Substitution (United States) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ United States·■ draw·■ Bosnia & Herz.—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–0 (13%)
actual 2–0 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.75
actual 2 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✓
Under — 52%
2 goals scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 56%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.4 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈10.0 expected
actual 7
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
C. Pulisic 51% W. McKennie 36% E. Džeko 30% G. Reyna 24%Scored: Folarin Balogun 45' · Malik Tillman 82'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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