SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Thu, 2 Jul 2026 · 23:00 UTC
Portugal 2–1 Croatia — match statistics
Portugal
Full time · BMO Field, Toronto
Match statistics
Portugal Croatia
Timeline
| 17' | 🟨 | Rúben Dias — Yellowcard (Portugal) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Igor Matanovic — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 53' | ⚽ | Ivan Perišić — Goal (Croatia) · 0-1 |
| 59' | 🟨 | Luka Modrić — Yellowcard (Croatia) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Bernardo Silva — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Francisco Conceição — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Gonçalo Ramos — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 63' | 🔄 | Nélson Semedo — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 68' | ⚽ | Cristiano Ronaldo — Penalty (Portugal) · 1-1 |
| 68' | 🔄 | Mario Pašalić — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 81' | 🔄 | Rúben Neves — Substitution (Portugal) |
| 90' | ⚽ | Gonçalo Ramos — Goal (Portugal) · 2-1 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Josko Gvardiol — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Andrej Kramaric — Substitution (Croatia) |
| 90' | 🟨 | Ivan Perišić — Yellowcard (Croatia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Portugal·■ draw·■ Croatia—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
1–1 (14%)
actual 2–1 was 6th likeliest (8%)
Expected goals
1.29 – 0.93
actual 2 – 1
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 62%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 56%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈4.8 expected
actual 3
Corners
≈8.7 expected
actual 14
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
C. Ronaldo 40% ⚽ L. Modrić 30% Bruno Fernandes 27% J. Gvardiol 20%Scored: Ivan Perišić 53' · Cristiano Ronaldo 68' · Gonçalo Ramos 90'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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