SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Thu, 2 Jul 2026 · 19:00 UTC
Spain 3–0 Austria — match statistics
Spain
Full time · SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles
Match statistics
Spain Austria
Timeline
| 36' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal — Goal (Spain) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Carney Chukwuemeka — Substitution (Austria) |
| 46' | 🔄 | Florian Grillitsch — Substitution (Austria) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Marko Arnautovic — Substitution (Austria) |
| 60' | 🔄 | Sasa Kalajdzic — Substitution (Austria) |
| 66' | ⚽ | Pedro Porro — Goal (Spain) · 2-0 |
| 71' | 🔄 | Mikel Merino — Substitution (Spain) |
| 71' | 🔄 | Ferran Torres — Substitution (Spain) |
| 83' | 🟨 | Stefan Posch — Yellowcard (Austria) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Gavi — Substitution (Spain) |
| 85' | 🔄 | Alexander Prass — Substitution (Austria) |
| 89' | ⚽ | Mikel Oyarzabal — Goal (Spain) · 3-0 |
| 90' | 🔄 | Marc Pubill — Substitution (Spain) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Fabián Ruiz — Substitution (Spain) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Spain·■ draw·■ Austria—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 3–0 was 3rd likeliest (10%)
Expected goals
2.04 – 0.59
actual 3 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Under — 51%
3 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✓
No — 61%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.2 expected
actual 1
Corners
≈10.2 expected
actual 9
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
Lamine Yamal 55% Pedri 39% Nico Williams 26% M. Sabitzer 25%Scored: Mikel Oyarzabal 36' · Pedro Porro 66' · Mikel Oyarzabal 89'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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