SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Sat, 4 Jul 2026 · 01:30 UTC
Colombia 1–0 Ghana — match statistics
Colombia
Full time · Arrowhead, Kansas City
Match statistics
Colombia Ghana
Timeline
| 8' | 🔄 | Luis Suárez — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 12' | 🟨 | Jhon Arias — Yellowcard (Colombia) |
| 13' | 🔄 | Alidu Seidu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 14' | ⚽ | Jhon Arias — Goal (Colombia) · 1-0 |
| 46' | 🔄 | Richard Ríos — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 49' | 🟨 | Caleb Yirenkyi — Yellowcard (Ghana) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Issahaku Fatawu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 62' | 🔄 | Elisha Owusu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 66' | 🟨 | Issahaku Fatawu — Yellowcard (Ghana) |
| 73' | 🔄 | Juan Fernando Quintero — Substitution (Colombia) |
| 76' | 🟨 | Alidu Seidu — Yellowcard (Ghana) |
| 78' | 🟨 | Richard Ríos — Yellowcard (Colombia) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Prince Adu — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 79' | 🔄 | Ernest Nuamah — Substitution (Ghana) |
| 90' | 🔄 | Jáminton Campaz — Substitution (Colombia) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Colombia·■ draw·■ Ghana—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (16%)
actual 1–0 was 2nd likeliest (13%)
Expected goals
2.32 – 0.52
actual 1 – 0
Over 2.5 goals✗
Over — 54%
1 goal scored → went under
Both teams to score✓
No — 63%
outcome: no
Cards
≈4.1 expected
actual 5
Corners
≈11.0 expected
actual 5
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Díaz 59% J. Rodríguez 43% R. Falcao 29% M. Kudus 22%Scored: Jhon Arias 14'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
Want the model on every match?
SaltaBall reads all 104 matches before kickoff and scores itself against the result, every time. Get the full model for the rest of the World Cup — predictions, the live war room, what-if scenarios and Game Sheets like this one.
One payment, full access through the final on 19 July, then back to free. Not a subscription. Football analytics and entertainment, never betting advice.