SaltaBallFixtures · Knockout · Fri, 3 Jul 2026 · 22:00 UTC
Argentina 3–2 Cape Verde — match statistics
Argentina
Full time · Hard Rock Stadium, Miami
Match statistics
Argentina Cape Verde
Timeline
| 29' | ⚽ | Lionel Messi — Goal (Argentina) · 1-0 |
| 59' | ⚽ | Deroy Duarte — Goal (Cape Verde) · 1-1 |
| 63' | 🔄 | Julián Álvarez — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 64' | 🔄 | Nico González — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Dailon Livramento — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 67' | 🔄 | Jamiro Monteiro — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 68' | 🟨 | Kevin Lenini — Yellowcard (Cape Verde) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Willy Semedo — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 80' | 🔄 | Hélio Varela — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 84' | 🔄 | Leandro Paredes — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 86' | 🔄 | Nicolás Tagliafico — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 92' | ⚽ | Lisandro Martínez — Goal (Argentina) · 2-1 |
| 100' | 🔄 | Benchimol — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 100' | 🔄 | Yannick Semedo — Substitution (Cape Verde) |
| 103' | ⚽ | Sidny Lopes Cabral — Goal (Cape Verde) · 2-2 |
| 104' | 🔄 | Gonzalo Montiel — Substitution (Argentina) |
| 111' | ⚽ | Diney Borges — Own Goal (Argentina) · 3-2 |
| 115' | 🟨 | Gonzalo Montiel — Yellowcard (Argentina) |
What the model said
Probabilities frozen before kickoff, scored on the 90-minute result (Brier — lower is better).
■ Argentina·■ draw·■ Cape Verde—dimmed = weight placed on outcomes that didn't happen
The engine's pre-match read vs what happened
Most likely score✗
2–0 (15%)
actual 3–2 was 17th likeliest (1%)
Expected goals
2.94 – 0.41
actual 3 – 2
Over 2.5 goals✓
Over — 65%
5 goals scored → went over
Both teams to score✗
No — 68%
outcome: yes
Cards
≈3.9 expected
actual 2
Corners
≈13.0 expected
actual 16
Likeliest scorers (pre-match)
L. Messi 68% ⚽ J. Álvarez 51% E. Martínez 36% ⚽ R. Mendes 18%Scored: Lionel Messi 29' · Deroy Duarte 59' · Lisandro Martínez 92' · Sidny Lopes Cabral 103' · Diney Borges (og) 111'
Accuracy is the Brier score — the standard measure for probabilities (lower is better): a well-judged draw counts in the model's favour, an over-confident wrong call is penalised. The detailed read is reproduced from the engine's pre-kickoff ratings (deterministic, verified against the scored record). Probabilities are model estimates, not guarantees, and never betting advice.
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